Chapter 1 - The Challenge of The Future
In this Chapter, Thiel argues that the most valuable companies create something new and go from "zero to one" instead of competing within existing markets.
The future is a time when things will look differently than they do today. By this definition, the future might not happen for another 100 years if nothing changes. On the other hand, the future might come tomorrow if there is rapid change. We don’t know much about the future, but we do know that it will be different from the present and that it will emerge from today’s world.
The Author, divides progress into two different types:
- Horizontal progress
- Vertical progress
Horizontal progress means copying things that work – going from 1 to n.
Vertical progress means doing new things— going from 0 to 1. This kind of progress is hard to imagine because it’s something that’s never been done before.
E.g. If you have a typewriter and then you build a word processor, you’ve achieved vertical progress.
Horizontal progress (Globalization) is like spreading things from one place and making them available everywhere else. On the other hand, vertical progress emerges when there are groundbreaking innovations in technology.
When we say "technology," it's not just about computers; any new way of doing things counts as technology. Globalization and technology are two different types of progress that may or may not occur at the same time. You might have one without the other, both together, and maybe even neither. But between both, technology will be the driving force shaping the future.
Sometimes, people tend to think we're getting close to their destination. Even the term "developed world" suggests that certain countries have reached the summit, and the so-called "undeveloped" countries just need to catch up.
But the key point is our current technology isn't sustainable, especially if everyone else starts using it too. As our resources are limited, and our environment can't handle the pollution that would come with that level of "development."
Without making technological progress, we spread things globally it could seriously harm the planet.
At one time, people thought technology would keep getting better in many directions. We dreamed of working less, driving flying cars, and even going on vacations to the moon. But the only thing which improved a lot is computer technology. Making progress doesn't just happen on its own; we must first dream about the world we want and then go and make it happen.
New technology comes from startups. Big organizations lumber around uselessly, and individuals don’t have the resources to create an entire industry. Small, agile groups foster innovation.
